18 thoughts on “Happy $12- Handle

  1. The only hope is the financial geniuses on the 29th floor on Pacific Avenue are buying some stock back here. Doubtful, though, they have legal bills to pay.


  2. TPL’s peers are holding up reasonably well, so we can attribute maybe 10% of the share price collapse to oil prices, but 90% is directly attributable to management and board self-dealing, malfeasance, and ethical breach of trust.

    This management and board will go down as one of the worst failures in corporate governance history and be a case study in business schools for decades to come.


    Liked by 1 person

  3. It’s ingenious really. Management is so adept at maximizing shareholder value they filed the lawsuit, spent 10s of millions on lawyers waging a losing battle, all in order to further cement the perception of their ineptness (to be kind). This drives the share price down over 50% and now, being the good stewards of our capital, are surely buying back 100s of millions worth at an incredible discount! How did we fail to recognize this brilliant plan months ago? Is a sarcasm tag required?

    Liked by 2 people

  4. What weak hands in their right mind would want to hold something like this going into recession (maybe) with Corporate leadership suing their shareholders in order to wrest control of the company from shareholders? TPL price action (and maybe banks) are the only sane price movement in the market.

    Long TPL, shorting Barry, Norris and Cookie

    Liked by 1 person

    • 2008 oil usage decline was 1.3%
      2009 3.1%
      2020 8.8%
      Seems like the stock is discounting a lot of demand loss. Probably not a bad time to accumulate as it falls.


      • Holding my nose and started adding to my position here, but it feels gross, like I’m somehow aiding this reprehensible board/management or a coconspirator in a financial crime.

        Liked by 1 person

      • good point, it is amazing how little oil usage drops in recession ( I really don’t count 2020 as it was not a recession but oppression). But the market usually punishes oil stock more severely. In 2008-2009 XOM dropped from mid $90s to mid $50s and in 2020 it went from $70 to $32. COP performed similarly (2020) dropped from $60- $25 and (2008-09) dropped mid $60s to under $30.

        But I do agree, recession (or fear of) is the time to buy (pretty much true for most things). Maybe Banks and Energy are getting punished early. XLE (energy) is down ~10% YTD and ~16% down since NOV 2022. KBE (banks) have dropped 22% YTD. Maybe if we replaced B&N with AI- TPL would go to $3k.

        Liked by 2 people

  5. I like the discussion.

    I have been adding basically every $100 drop.

    I keep reminding myself what it is we actually own here. And have to believe the management can’t actually destroy it for real. Can they?


    • They certainly can if they use the $600m of cash for capital-intensive asset acquisitions like they want to (OXY…). Completely flips the business model on its head from a pure royalty asset that buys back shares (aka compounding monster) to just another O&G company negatively exposed to inflation via increased capital and operating costs.

      Moves like that would rightfully push the multiple down to single digits with the O&G exploration peers.

      If management is allowed to make transformative acquisitions like that (with shares OR cash), then it is time to run for the hills.


  6. in an economic downturn, usually oil will get slammed much worse than what we have witnessed in the past 6-12 months. I think one of the key driver for oil to hold up relatively well is that in the past 6-12 months, commercial/business/leisure air travel has gone up exponentially ever since various countries continue to lift their COVID travel quarantine policies

    should TPL behave like the way it should have, my guess is share price should be trading at roughly 2000/share. Damage with the legal fees is done. There is no going back, but the actual financial damage in the share price far outstrip the actual economic damage done to TPL. At the end of the day, its a crown jewel asset that cant be replicated. I have been feeling sick to add position ever since share price went below 1600 and see it continue to drop. Having said that, I dont believe that under a scenario where oil price is holding up well, there will be not be an opportunity to buy TPL at current market price if it werent for the sick minds of current management. Being a contrarian investor requires a lot of stomach strength i have to say


    • “Damage with the legal fees is done.” I have to disagree with you. The figure reported was for the Q1 2023. The trial occurred in Q 2 2023 with all kinds of legal briefs to generate billable hours. Even if the Investor Group prevails and TPL BOD doesn’t appeal. TPL is on the hook for the investor groups legal fees [I believe].


  7. When I look at StockCharts.com chart I see a classic falling knife scenario. I have nibbled a bit to have a placeholder, but until it is trading in a positive direction I see no reason to make a significant acquisition of TPL stock. Until the 20 day simple moving average changes direction and starts increasing I don’t see an end to this price drop. There was some indication of an increase leading up to the trial date, but that didn’t survive reality. HK has the advantage of a much lower average cost for his holdings due to his large holdings acquired over many years at much lower prices.

    Looking at the Q1 reports of activity from the institutional investors my take is most of them are taking a wait and see approach. This makes me think most of the selling is discouraged individual investors. There is some short activity but it doesn’t seem significant. [Based on historical delayed data].


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