Trailing 12mo EPS stands at $21.79 as of 9/30/18.
Since the quarter printed, we’ve seen the Trailing 12mo Earnings multiple contract from 39.6x to 26.3x.
26.3x is below the long term mean of 28.8x but comfortably inside one standard deviation from the mean (17.4x).
It appears that TPL’s multiple had a bit of a regime shift in late 2005. After that point, P/Es were generally higher with an average of 36.1x. Though the P/E also appears more volatile, the standard deviation of the smaller sample is 10.9x vs 11.4x for the entire history displayed.
Fair value at long term P/E mean = $21.79 x 28.8x = $628
Fair value at 9/2005 through current P/E mean = $21.79 x 36.1x = $726