A few posts down, I posited a theory that $TPL share price weakness apparent in the first month of calendar quarters was due to a lack of buying from the trust. My hunch was that the trust was prohibited from buying due to it having material non-public information in the form of quarterly earnings (blackout). Some crude analysis showed that my theory appeared to hold water.
It was fun while it lasted. The (cruder still) analysis below shoots some holes in my bucket.
A logical extension of my blackout theory is that we should see a dip in average daily trading volumes during the first month of each quarter. This was barely the case. Since the stock split in July 2007, the first month of each calendar quarter has had an average daily volume that was lower than the average daily volume of the entire quarter in 23 out of 44 quarters. Or 52.2%. Hard to call that significant.
So, without wasting anymore of your time, here a couple charts that make the point. Volume in the first month of calendar quarters does not appear to follow any easily discernable pattern.