Rountrip???

$455 as I write this.  Started the year at $444.  Does $TPL stay positive on the year?  YOY EPS will come close to 2.5x-ing but whatever.

Update 12/21/18:  With today’s close at $432 the Trust is offically under water on the year.  Recent trading patterns don’t have me optimistic about where the price will go during the last week of the year.  Guess we’ll get ’em in 2019.

I remain a buyer.  I’m spending more than I budgeted to pick up small blocks down here.  My kids will thank me.

tpl 2018 px action

Source:  Bloomberg

6 thoughts on “Rountrip???

  1. I am thinking for most people that purchased anytime in 2018, they are underwater with their position. So the strong selling pressure is both tax loss captures, and the hedge funds and very small institutional ownership is probably punting the shares, since for many of these funds/owners, it represented a small position.

    Agree it makes no sense given the earnings are considerably better.

    Thats my explanation. Of course this, plus $7 can get you a cup of nice coffee anywhere!

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  2. Ouch…But hey, more Sub-shares an be bought back. We also are dealing with market hysteria. Plus there are more futures contracts of oil than physically exist for delivery. So there is that too. If you take an esrimate of $26 in earnings for this year plus the $13 or so for the land sale…its practically $40 per share in earnings againt what $430 or so for Dec 21 a potential PE of around 11???

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  3. Smyth: I like how you think! I have owned a good sized batch of shares from 2011 at an average price of $58, what I call the generational core position that won’t ever be sold. And some I bought last year and sold this year when TPL started to decline otherwise it would have wiped out the paper gains.

    But at this price, they seem to be very much on sale, and its hard to resist. The pe is too low to be reasonable, so I think its an opportunity to buy and take advantage of someone that is establishing a tax loss. May have to lift a few shares monday.

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  4. Looks like TPL is back to being in positive territory for the year. Hard to know if the selling pressure of the hedge funds and few institutions is over, but I think TPL will perform better once the tax selling is done for 2018. The p/e is still way below where it has been for years, with significantly better prospects of the company now.

    I did what I threatened and added a very small percentage of shares to my legacy holdings on Monday soon after the market opened. It was a strange trade, with the bid/ask only $4.27 apart, and it actually filled at that ask immediately.

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