TPL, with its 10/30 closing price of $710, stands at a 38 P/E relative to trailing 12mo earnings of $18.63 per share. After earnings print (tomorrow??), trailing 12mo earnings could migrate to $22.27 per share if the $7 estimates are correct ($7 goes in, $3.36 Q317 drops out). If P/E stays at the low end of its recent corridor range, we get to $846 (38 x $22.27).
For fun, a 2016 energy selloff-type move to 20x gets TPL to $445 after assumed earnings. That looks to be close to the floor on valuation.
Also after assumed earnings, a reversion to long term 30x trailing 12mo EPS puts TPL at $668. Pretty close to where we are now.
If the price doesn’t move after earnings print, $22.27 trailing 12mo earnings at $710 implies a 12mo trailing P/E of 31.9x. In that case, TPL would be very close to average long term historical valuation though you could argue that the income picture has changed substantially over the observed time period.
What’s the right P/E for the new watery, minerally, and sundry-y TPL?